This article is from: srnnews.com
The ballots remain to be cast for the November midterm elections. Yet Democrats and Republicans in some states already are looking at how they could reshape congressional voting districts to gain an advantage in the 2028 elections.
The new gerrymandering efforts are part two of a mid-decade redistricting battle that already spans 10 states, which are home to two of every five U.S. residents.
Part one began last summer, when President Donald Trump urged Republican-led states to redraw U.S. House districts to try to stave off midterm election losses. Some Democratic-led states responded by pursuing their own partisan redistricting. Then a U.S. Supreme Court decision in late April weakened the federal Voting Rights Act, providing new grounds for Southern Republicans to reconfigure districts with large minority populations that have elected Democrats.
The midterm elections will provide an assessment of those redistricting changes. Republicans think they could net up to 10 additional House seats under the new districts. But Democrats have history on their side — the president’s party often loses seats in the midterms — and could make gains from Trump’s poor approval ratings.
If the November election produces another narrow majority for either party, politicians could have extra incentive to redistrict ahead of the 2028 elections.
Here’s a look at how that could play out:
New York already has taken an initial step toward redistricting ahead of the 2028 elections. The legislature recently approved a proposed constitutional amendment that would authorize mid-decade redistricting, repeal prohibitions on partisan gerrymandering and make it easier for lawmakers to bypass an independent redistricting commission in the future. The measure needs another round of legislative approval next year before it can appear on a statewide ballot.
Maryland’s House speaker has told members to set aside time in July for a potential special session on redistricting. One plan could ask voters to amend the state constitution to alter a requirement for compact districts — one factor cited in a 2022 court ruling that struck down a previous map as “a product of extreme partisan gerrymandering.”
Supporters of an initiative petition are attempting to qualify a constitutional amendment for Colorado’s November ballot that would set aside congressional districts adopted by an independent commission and allow new ones.
In New Jersey, a potential constitutional amendment avoiding a bipartisan redistricting commission would need a three-fifths vote in each legislative chamber — or a simple majority in two straight years — to go to voters for approval.
Virginia also could make another run at a redistricting amendment that bypasses a bipartisan commission. Amendments there require legislative approval during two separate sessions with an intervening election. The state Supreme Court ruled in May that lawmakers missed their window to approve a plan before the 2025 elections. But lawmakers could try the two-step process again, centered around the state’s 2027 elections.
Georgia legislative leaders on Wednesday opted against redistricting for the 2028 elections during a special session called by Gov. Brian Kemp. They expressed reluctance to rush into action, but left open the possibility of considering redistricting later.
Kansas lawmakers last year failed to get the two-thirds support needed to call themselves into a special session on redistricting and override a potential veto by the Democratic governor. But if Republicans win the governor’s office in November, they could have a smoother path to approve redistricting next year.
The Indiana Senate last year rejected a congressional redistricting plan pushed by Trump. But in this year’s Republican primaries, Trump-endorsed challengers defeated several senators who had opposed redistricting, creating an opening to consider it again next year.
The South Carolina Senate in May also rejected congressional redistricting ahead of the midterm elections. But the topic could resurface before the next elections.
Minnesota has the nation’s most closely divided legislature, with a tie in the House and a one-seat Democratic majority in the Senate. If Democrats win control of both chambers in November and hold on to the office being vacated by Democratic Gov. Tim Walz, they could have the capability to reconfigure the state’s congressional districts. But so could Republicans, if they pull off victories in the gubernatorial and legislative races.
Pennsylvania is in a similar situation. Democrats hold a narrow House majority and Republicans a narrow Senate majority. If Democrats win both chambers in November and Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is reelected, they would have the power to redraw congressional districts. But Republicans also have a shot at full control. For either party, a 2018 state Supreme Court decision declaring a Republican-drawn congressional map unconstitutionally gerrymandered provides a cautionary note against going too far.
Wisconsin has a closely contested race to replace outgoing Democratic Gov. Tony Evers. And candidates for the Legislature, currently controlled by Republicans, will be running in November under new districts that improve Democrats’ chances. If Democrats sweep into full control, they could reshape the state’s Republican-leaning congressional districts. Republicans also have a shot at taking the governor’s office and retaining at least one legislative chamber. Two pending lawsuits against the current congressional map seek to force redistricting.
Republican Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves said he expects state lawmakers to redraw congressional districts before the state’s 2027 elections. But no specific plan has been put forward yet.
In Illinois, Democratic state lawmakers last year dismissed a national party suggestion to redistrict congressional seats ahead of the midterm elections. Lawmakers expressed concerns that doing so could weaken representation for Black voters. But Democrats left open the possibility of redistricting later.
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