This article is from: srnnews.com
Iran Has Powerful Friends, But Will China or Russia Actually Join the Fight?
“I think we could describe what Russia and China offered as sort of their ‘thoughts and prayers,’” said Dr. Simon Wolfgang Fuchs of Hebrew University
By Maayan Hoffman/The Media Line
Israel and the US appear to be prevailing against Iran, but what if China and Russia joined the conflict?
Experts say Israel faces little threat from China or Russia.
Since the war began on Saturday, both Beijing and Moscow have voiced strong support for Tehran. China condemned the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and has issued several statements expressing friendship and solidarity with Iran. Russia’s Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, said that the only way to prevent the region from descending into instability is to stop the aggression of the United States and Israel.
Still, analysts say neither country is likely to move beyond rhetoric or offer Iran any direct military support.
“I think we could describe what Russia and China offered as sort of their ‘thoughts and prayers,’” said Dr. Simon Wolfgang Fuchs of the Hebrew University. “Russia offered its condolences. China was maybe a bit more forceful in condemning the killing of Khamenei.”
China is likely analyzing the strategic and political conditions on the ground and has no intention of “tying itself to a sinking ship” or a “collapsing regime,” explained Prof. Yoram Evron of the Department of Asian Studies at Bar-Ilan University. “This is not part of China’s DNA.”
According to Evron, although China and Iran have been partners for many years, they are not allies in the deepest sense of the term. As a result, China is unlikely to sacrifice its own interests to support a regime that acts “illogically” and is “engaged in self-destruction.”
Evron said that one only has to look at the type of support China provided Iran during the 12-day war with Israel and the United States over the summer, when Beijing also remained relatively aloof. The country made general statements opposing the use of military force against Iran but offered little more. Even if China attempted to pass resolutions in the United Nations Security Council against Israel or the United States, Evron noted, Washington would simply block them.
“In principle, China has not gotten involved in military conflicts in the Middle East,” Evron said. “It hasn’t done so so far, and it is probably not going to start doing it right now. Also, China, despite its support of the Iranian regime, has so far avoided any direct conflict with the US over Iran. Any time that the US was determined to block Iran, China didn’t put its interests in danger to help Iran.”
China is also closely watching the conflict unfold, Evron said. Beijing is studying what types of military technology are being used and considering what it may want to develop for its own armed forces. At the same time, China would prefer not to expose its own military capabilities by becoming directly involved.
Diplomatic considerations also play a role. US President Donald Trump is expected to visit China on March 31, according to the White House, and Beijing is unlikely to jeopardize that trip as both sides seek to extend a fragile trade truce.
China also remained quiet during protests in Iran earlier this year, Fuchs noted, likely downplaying them domestically to avoid encouraging similar unrest at home.
Evron said Beijing would probably establish relations with whatever government succeeds Iran’s current regime.
“No regime can live without China as an oil customer,” Evron explained.
China does rely on Iran for part of its oil supply, receiving about 12% of its oil from the country, Fuchs said. However, he noted that Iran is far more dependent on China, since that 12% accounts for around 87% of Iran’s crude oil exports.
Evron noted that China continued purchasing Iranian oil despite international sanctions, which has been a key factor in helping the regime survive. China has also offered some diplomatic backing and may have provided dual-use technologies, materials, and possibly even military products that were smuggled into Iran.
However, Evron cautioned that some reports about Chinese assistance may be exaggerated.
“I assume that many of the news reports about Chinese assistance were largely Iranian leakage, which I’m not sure were very accurate,” he said. “Iran might have used China to give the impression that it is not totally isolated, but I don’t know to what extent China actually provided it with any military-related materials.”
Oil is also a key factor in the relationship between Russia and Iran. In some ways, Russia could benefit from the current war because disruptions to Iranian exports may push more buyers toward Russian oil.
For example, the US Treasury issued a 30-day waiver on Thursday, allowing India to purchase Russian oil currently stuck at sea “to enable oil to keep flowing into the global market,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement posted to social media.
Russia has also benefited from Iranian military technology, particularly drones that Moscow has used extensively in its war against Ukraine, said Dr. Ze’ev Khanin, a lecturer in political science at Bar-Ilan University. He told The Media Line that the relationship has not been entirely reciprocal. Despite various promises, Iran has not received the most advanced fighter jets or air defense systems from Russia.
“Russia and Iran officially declared themselves as strategic partners about a year ago and signed an accord around diplomatic, economic, humanitarian, and security affairs,” Khanin said.
As part of that cooperation, he said, Russia has supplied Iran with some air defense systems, military aircraft, and tanks, while Iran has provided Russia with unmanned flying vehicles and drones for use in Ukraine. However, Khanin stressed that the partnership has limits.
“This doesn’t mean either country will fight for the other,” he said.
Recent events support that conclusion. When tensions escalated between Israel, the United States, and Iran earlier this year, Russia did not intervene militarily, and Khanin said it is unlikely to do so now.
“They might exchange some sort of intelligence information, but not more than that,” Khanin said.
He added that the current conflict does not involve only Israel, the United States, and Iran. Iran has drawn in multiple regional actors, particularly Gulf states, where Russia also has significant strategic and economic interests. Moscow has been working to maintain ties across the region, including with Gulf countries and with Israel.
Because of these interests, Russia will act cautiously. If Gulf states work more with Western powers during the conflict, Russia risks losing its influence in the region.
Another factor is Russia’s reliance on Iran as a workaround to sanctions. According to Khanin, Iran has spent decades building networks of companies and intermediaries in places such as Dubai, Turkey, and Southeast Asia. These networks have helped Iran bypass international sanctions and have also enabled Russia to obtain goods it could not easily obtain through official channels.
“If Iran at the moment loses this network, that will be a very bad piece of news also for Russia,” Khanin said.
In other words, while China and Russia may continue to stand beside Iran politically, experts say they are unlikely to stand beside it on the battlefield.
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