This article is from: srnnews.com
By Gregor Stuart Hunter and Francesco Guarascio
SINGAPORE/HANOI, March 3 (Reuters) – Vietnam is on the cusp of joining the emerging-markets club and stocks have notched their biggest rally in years, but foreigners have been sellers and say investing is handicapped by tariff risks, ownership limits and one firm’s dominance of the index.
That could hold back global capital from Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economy at a time when money is flowing to smaller markets, even after a likely bump from FTSE Russell’s upgrade of Vietnam’s market from frontier into secondary emerging status, expected to be effective from September.
A confirmation of the upgrade could come in March or April, when FTSE publishes its review of Vietnam’s regulatory progress.
Another potential boost may follow if index provider MSCI adds Vietnam to its watchlist — a step J.P. Morgan says could happen as early as June — although an actual upgrade is not expected before the end of the decade.
Vietnam’s benchmark index gained 41% in 2025, its strongest rise in eight years, as the export-reliant nation expanded 8%.
Flows of overseas capital can lift Vietnamese companies’ stocks and lower their funding costs, supporting economic growth and the currency.”
But foreign investors are leaning toward other markets, worried that Vietnam’s growth, in part due to trade re-routed from China, is at risk from fickle U.S. trade policy and of the contribution that developer-to-carmarker conglomerate Vingroup has made to the market gains.
“Foreign investors were cautious on Vietnam heading into the Trump presidency due to concerns around potential tariffs,” said Sean Taylor, chief investment officer at San Francisco-based asset management firm Matthews Asia.
“We felt there were many opportunities to make money in more liquid and transparent markets in the index like Taiwan, South Korea and China.”
Net equity outflows hit a record $5.1 billion in 2025, according to LSEG data, and extended in January and February to leave foreigners holding roughly 14.5% of the shares on issue in a market worth $332 billion, government figures show.
London-listed Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited, Dragon Capital’s flagship closed-end fund, also had a rush for the exits, with more than two-thirds of shareholders voting to participate in a tender offer to cash out some of their holdings.
The fund, which counts the Gates Foundation Trust and hedge fund manager Boaz Weinstein among investors, has long traded at a discount to the value of its assets – a symptom of the illiquidity of the local market.
Vietnam’s market regulator told Reuters in a statement that “several of the world’s largest global investment institutions … have actively prepared to invest in Vietnam,” but did not name anyone in particular.
OUTSIZED INFLUENCE
Foreign exchange, access and ownership caps have also long tempered overseas interest in Vietnamese stocks, but last year’s rally has also bent a lopsided market further out of shape.
A benchmark dominated by banks and developers is being increasingly driven by a single stock, Vingroup, which rose 736% last year. It is Vietnam’s most valuable company and together with subsidiaries comprises more than 20% of the benchmark.
“For foreign funds that care about diversification and liquidity, that makes it harder to add exposure without taking on too much single-stock risk,” said Tran Thi Mong Tuyen, a researcher at the Hawaii-based Pacific Forum.
Owned by Pham Nhat Vuong, a businessman who made his first fortune selling instant noodles in Ukraine, Vingroup was founded in 1993 and has expanded from real estate into a conglomerate spanning railways, steel, energy, entertainment and space.
Now it’s almost a $50 billion behemoth despite a recent slide. Vingroup’s stock last year drove up the broader market amid government support and a pledge from the ruling Communist Party for “preferential policies” for private domestic firms.
“A few related stocks account for a disproportionate share of the index and exert outsized influence over market movements,” said Thu Nguyen, deputy head of Vietnamese fund VinaCapital.
Vingroup, which floated loss-making electric vehicle maker VinFast on the Nasdaq in 2023, said last year’s stock price gains reflected supportive government policies and its units’ achievements.
Its net profit doubled last year, however the stratospheric stock price move means it currently trades at a lofty price-to-earnings multiple of 96.
That valuation “is quite challenging for a fundamental investor like ourselves to get comfortable with at the present moment, when there remain significant uncertainties about the timing of the future cash flows from the many projects it is involved with,” said Craig Martin, Singapore-based chairman of Dynam Capital, which manages a London-listed Vietnam fund.
Eight brokers and other fund managers contacted by Reuters either said they did not advise clients to buy Vingroup stock or declined to talk about the company, with some citing fears of reprisals.
To be sure, Vietnam has loosened funding and trading rules, making access easier and making progress toward a market upgrade.
Global investors aren’t wholesale bearish about Vietnam either, with some buying companies listed elsewhere, but doing business in Vietnam, in order to gain exposure.
But with prices for locally-listed firms sometimes at 20-30% premiums for international buyers, due to caps on foreign holdings, few see the value in rushing in just yet.
“A lot of managers have mentioned stocks have potential, but the liquidity needs to be there,” said Hunter Beaudoin from research firm Morningstar. “Foreign ownership limits are creating some constraints.”
(Reporting by Gregor Hunter in Singapore and Francesco Guarascio and Phuong Nguyen in Hanoi; Editing by Tom Westbrook and Raju Gopalakrishnan)
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